In this section, you will find a list of noteworthy and notable Republican and Democratic primaries taking place across the country for the U.S. House. These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. Metadata. House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. Apply today! Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. As with the House, the margin of control in the next Senate is likely to be very narrow. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. 2022 U.S. House Elections with multiple incumbents. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. 2022 United States House of Representatives Predictions. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. You can also view these ratingsas a table. Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. Congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the 435 seats (100%) in the U.S. House of Representatives. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022 Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Less clear is what the race will do to his . Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. We rated every race in play in 2022. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. Benjamin Kalu. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . See the rest of our predictions. 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. Current House. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. Clickme! In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. The 2022 election was the first to take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. This was 540 votes more than the closest House race in 2020. Of the 410 incumbents who ran for re-election, 247 (60.2%) faced contested primaries. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. There were 33 U.S. House battlegrounds in 2022. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. You can also view these ratings as a table. Read the analysis ($). Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. . [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. November 6:CA-21, IL-08, WA-06 move from Safe to Likely D; CO-03 Safe to Likely R; CT-05 Leans D to Leans R; GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; WA-03 Safe to Likely D. All toss-ups picked - Toss-up to Leans D: CA-13, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, PA-08, TX-28. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election. UPDATED Nov. 7, 2022, at 1:58 PM Republicans are favored to win the House The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often.. The chart below shows historical partisan breakdown information for the chamber. The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. He withdrew before the runoff. Ballotpedia features 395,397 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. If one assumes that both parties hold each of their two currently vacant seats, we know that Democrats will be defending 222 of 435 House seats and 14 of 34 Senate seats next year, then the only predictor whose value is unknown is the generic ballot. You can also view these ratings as a table. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles The candidate of Labour Party, Thaddeus Attah, has been declared the winner of the Eti-Osa Federal Constituency seat in the House of Representatives. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . To learn more about our methodology, click here. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Sgn Gas Interview, Standard Ceiling Height 1930, Articles OTHER